There is a lot riding on the Motorola Droid. Verizon is looking for an answer to the iPhone, which has driven enviable data ARPU growth for AT&T. According to Rita Chang of Ad Age, the Droid is supported by a $100 million integrated marketing campaign, the largest in Verizon history, running through the end of 2009. Google's long-term bet on mobile, underscored by its recent $750 million offer to purchase Admob, demands that the Android OS propagate. Meanwhile, HTC enjoys an early mover advantage with its G1 and 1.5 generation of Android handsets. Finally, several more leading OEM's have pledged to support Android, with as many as 100 handsets scheduled to ship in 2010. In short, the once dominant, now reinvented Motorola has little room for error.
Through its analytics service, Flurry monitors usage of over 10,000 developers' applications on iPhone and Android. In total, Flurry tracks applications on approximately two out of every three unique iPhone and Android handsets in the market, including over 15,000 million user sessions per day. To estimate first week sales totals for the myTouch 3G, Droid and iPhone 3GS, Flurry detected new handsets within its system, and then made adjustments to account for varying levels of Flurry application penetration by handset. Flurry additionally cross-checked its estimates against Apple actual sales, released for the iPhone 3GS, which totaled one million units sold over the three days of sales, Jun 19 - 21. Flurry first week sales estimates can be found in the table below.
While Flurry estimates Apple sold approximately 1.6 million 3GS units over its first week of sales, it is important to note that Apple simultaneously launched its device across eight countries (U.S., Canada and six European countries), while the Droid launched only in the U.S. Additionally, the iPhone commanded a strong installed base of over 25 million at the time the 3GS launched. Of those, over 6 million were first generation iPhone users who were expected to upgrade to the 3GS. Taken in this context, Droid sales of 250,000 units during its first week from a standing start and in just one country, is a strong result for Motorola and Verizon. Also, by Flurry's measurement Android does have an edge over iPhone app usage, with the average Android session length at four minutes vs. two minutes for iPhone apps.
With its first week showing, the Droid is the fastest-selling Android phone to date. Compared to the myTouch 3G on T-Mobile, Droid outsold it by more than four times. Of course, Verizon has nearly 90 million subscribers to T-Mobile's 34 million and Verizon has shown a willingness to outspend previous carriers with its $100 million campaign. With Motorola forecasting its own Droid sales at one million through the end of the year, that equates to a cost per acquisition of $100 per handset sold. Verizon's aggressive campaign coupled with its 3G network advantage in key, populous regions of the country like the Northeast positions the Droid as a legitimate challenger to the iPhone.
While iPhone continues to dominate the Smartphone market overall, each subsequent Android handset launch increases competition for Apple. Furthermore, Flurry has monitored a sharp increase in new Android project starts by application developers within its system, a 94% jump in October compared to September. The launch of Droid signals the beginning of a viable platform alternative to the iPhone as Android builds critical mass. As major companies continue to vie for a piece of the exploding Smartphone market, the consumer has never had more choice and innovation in the mobile industry. With Droid, Motorola has raised the bar for Android handsets, contributing to an ever-growing base of Android handsets upon which applications developers can build a business.
The data in this report is computed from a sample size of over 2,500 applications, 40 million consumers and 4 platforms: Apple (iPhone and iPod Touch), Blackberry, JavaME and Google Android.
After Playing Games, iPhone Gets Serious about Books
The iPhone is a versatile multi-media device that has already significantly impacted the business models of music, games and other Media & Entertainment industry categories. In particular, since Apple launched the App Store in July 2008, game developers have flocked to the iPhone, creating an alternative for consumers to the leading handheld gaming platform, Nintendo DS. In Nintendo's October 29 earnings call, the company cited iPhone competition against its DS as one of the reasons profits fell by more than half last quarter, from 133 billion yen a year prior to 64 billion yen, or $709 million.
To predict which sector of Media & Entertainment iPhone might next impact, Flurry researched the number of applications released to the App Store, by category, since its inception. From August 2008 to August 2009, more apps were released in the Games category than any other. This September, however, we observed another category, Books, usurping Games for the first time ever. To illustrate the surge in the supply of books to the App Store, the chart below compares the number of books and games released to the App Store per month, over the last four months, as a percentage of all released applications.
In October, one out of every five new apps launching in the iPhone has been a book. Publishers of all kinds, from small ones like Your Mobile Apps to mega-publishers like Softbank, are porting existing IP into the App Store at record rates. Flurry first evaluated the iPhone as an eBook reader in its July Pulse ("You Trying to Swindle my Kindle?") where it looked at consumer demand for eBooks. In that report, we observed that during the month of August 1% of the entire U.S. population was already reading a book on the iPhone. Now, with books shipping in droves, we are seeing the supply-side explode.
The sharp rise in eBook activity on the iPhone indicates that Apple is positioned take market share from the Amazon Kindle as it did from the Nintendo DS. Despite the smaller form factor of the display, we predict that the iPhone will be a significant player in the book category of the Media & Entertainment space. Further, with Apple working on a larger tablet form factor, running on the iPhone OS, we believe Jeff Bezos and team will face significant competition.
Addicted to iPhone Apps? There's an App for That.
In its August Pulse report, Flurry reviewed consumer loyalty by looking at how long and how frequently consumers used their downloaded applications. This time around, we're escalating the conversation from retention to outright addiction. The chart below depicts growth of what we call the "Addict" segment, consumers that use an application more than 100 times per month, or more than three times each day of the month. These are the most active users Flurry tracks, and they fire up their applications more than 10 times more often than the average user, who access their applications around 8 times per month.
The graph above shows significant growth in the Addict segment over the past six months. In September, 1.2% of the more than 40 million users Flurry tracked, or roughly one half of a million, used apps more than 100 times per month. Unrelated to Flurry's finding, a Rubicon Consulting survey found that one in ten iPhone users reported pain or numbness in their fingers. Perhaps there is a correlation between usage and physical side-effects. Either way, there is no denying the level of addiction iPhone users are demonstrating around app usage.